What is the probability I am experiencing reality right now and not a dream or illusion?

What is the probability that the people around me are thinking beings and not just robots?

What is the probability that the universe is real?

I think these questions are really impossible to answer with probability.

So far as I can see, probability only works for events that we have measured before, preferably many times. The more something is measured, the more likely our statistics are to be accurate.

If I only flip a coin once to see if I get heads or tails, I am *not *get an accurate probability. I’ll either think that the coin lands on heads 100% of the time or tails 100% of the time. If I flip a coin 5 times, the odds are that I will have a more accurate, although it is still possible that I flipped to heads 100% of the time or tails 100% of the time. If I flip a coin 10,000 times, the odds are overwhelming that I will have a much better probability, very close (thought probably not perfect) to 50-50.

So I don’t see how we can reasonably assign a probability to something that we can’t test even once[1].

I can say that there is a 1 in 33,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 that if I make a gingerbread cookie it will jump off the tray and run away. The problem is . . . we have never seen a gingerbread cookie get up off a tray and run away. So how can I establish any probability about this at all? How do I know that a gingerbread cookie would *ever *jump off a tray? What if it’s *never *possible?

So how can I make a probability guess about how likely it would be for the universe to come into being on its own? I could give a number with all kinds of zeros behind it, but that doesn’t mean it’s possible. I have never seen a universe come into being, so how could I know the probability that a universe would come into being on its own? What if it’s *never* possible?

On the flip side, what is the probability that God exists? What number can I ascribe to this? Once again, I could string a bunch of zeroes behind a one, but that would not mean a God does or does not exist. What if there is *no* chance there’s a God? Or what if it’s not possible the universe can exist *without *God?

Probability-wise, I’m not getting anywhere fast on any of these questions. Probability-wise, I’m not getting anywhere slow either. I’m not getting anywhere at all.

Probability might be helpful when I’m rolling a die[2] but it isn’t much good at determining what occurs or has occurred outside the observable realm.

When probability doesn’t work for my most important questions . . . where will I find my answers?

I think about Elijah’s prayer:

**“O LORD, answer me! Answer me so these people will know that you, O LORD, are God and that you have brought them back to yourself.”** (1 Kings 18:37, NLT)